WolfTeam News

December 30, 2009

Alaska Economy Relatively Stable

Alaskans can count their blessings, in spite of some economic area’s of concerns.  Alaska has seen some slow-down and a “flat” economy, but factors such as oil and gas prices and hard rock mining have continued to bolster our

A frost covered spruce bough

economy.  We certainly have not suffered the economic tail spin seen in most other U.S. States and many cities.

In January and February, there will be some formal economic projections available.  One in particular is the Anchorage Economic and Development Corporation (AEDC) which releases their report mid-February.  These reports will compile projections from a year ago and compare them to actual numbers on the various market sectors such as oil and gas, employment, real estate and insurance, retail and military.

As close as I can tell, it appears Anchorage real estate hasn’t slipped overall in sale price, but the number of transactions slipped about 10% from 2008.  I’ll report actual numbers in future posts.

Business reporter Tim Bradner wrote a good article for the Anchorage Daily News, click here to read it.  Another good source of business news is the Alaska Journal of Commerce.  Read the Journal’s economic report, also from Tim Bradner, with a slightly different spin.

December 27, 2009

Anchorage & Eagle River Total Market Overview

Every ten days, my company, Keller Williams Realty Alaska Group, pulls together a market study called a “Total Market Overview.”  The report pulls data from the Alaska Multiple Listing Service.  Actually there are two reports, one for residential properties and one for condominium properties.

The report breaks the market down by price points, for instance, $175,000 – $199,999, $200,000 – $ 224,999, etc;  Then we report on what is going on in each price point category such as Number of Active Listings, number of pending listings, # months of inventory, # of closed, pending, expired in each price category and finally the average list price in that price point as average sales price.  You can then see what the average list price to actual sales price and the average days on market.  Very interesting information to know for all parties in a transaction.

Christmas Glow on mid-town street

Consider these numbers from a buyers perspective;  You want to buy a property, but you really want a good deal (WHO DOESN’T?).  The property you like is “one of a kind” and is really convenient to your job, your church and your grocery store, and the garage is “killer” and the kitchen is “to die for“!  The house is listed at $360,000.  You’ve seen EVERYTHING on the market and you don’t want to lose this home!  You look at current report and homes in this catagory sell for 98.5% on the average.  So much for thinking the seller will take any offer!  That doesn’t mean you can’t offer $345,000 and see what happens, but you should feel pretty good if you get a counter back at $352,000 and they’ll pay a few of your closing costs.  You might also note how many days the house has been on the market.  The average market time is 74 days.  If ”your” house has been listed longer than that, possibly the seller is getting motivated to sell.

As a seller wanting to list your property, the “TMO” or Total Market Overview” would also tell you some important information.  It would tell you that in the price range of $350,000 to $374,999 there are 52 houses in the Anchorage Bowl listed for sale.  At the rate they sell it means about 2.9 months of  home inventory at that price level.  Seven of those homes, on the average, won’t sell during their listing contract and will “expire” from the multiple listing service.  You feel you want to ask the high end of the range, to see what happens and leave room to negotiate.  That is a normal feeling, but the form points out the average in this category was listed originally at $377,460 and was reduced to $362,879 before they got an offer.  You see, setting the price too high to “see what happens” only delays getting on offer.  If you want to sell, you have to get your price right and you are smarter to do it sooner, than later.

I keep these reports posted on my website.  You can click here to take a look at one.  The reports are in the “Blog”  menu.  Choose either condo or residential.  It’s pretty interesting and of course, totally objective since the numbers are generated from actual locale market activity.

December 20, 2009

2009 in Rear-View Mirror!

Filed under: Just for fun,Life in Anchorage — Tags: , , — Dan @ 7:44 am

It is nearly Christmas, on the tail-end of December as I sit down to write today’s blog post.  It is 6am in the morning, my favorite time of the day.  I  am sitting at my computer watching the snow come down outside.  It is one of my favorite things, quiet early mornings, a steaming cup of coffee, in my favorite chair – complete peace and quiet!

Dan, Kristi and Cody Wolf

Dan, Kristi and Cody Wolf

I want to thank my friends and customers for a good real estate year.  It looks like my team and I will close about 95 homes for the year, in-spite of a soft market, changes in lending practises and more restrictive appraisal rules. It looks like we were down about 10% from last year.  We sold 107 homes in 2008.   We can certainly handle more volume, but we are thankful for what we have done.  We’re never too busy for YOUR business or the friends you refer to us!

Looking back, it was a fast paced year!  After selling PowerHouse Gym that we owned for 8 years, my wife has “re-discovered” herself as a room-mother at my son’s school.  I would have never thought she would have had the patience for that sort of work;  and it has taken some time for her to adapt, but she’s loving her new “job” -  a labor of love, not paid in money, but in terms only a mothers heart can appreciate!

My son Cody will be 10 years old  in a month.  He is “all boy” and loves anything outside, deep snow, deep water, things with wheels and snow machines.  He would live in the water if he could.  Right now he waits by the door for me to come home in the evening so we can wrestle.  Whoever said kids keep you young, never had children at my age!

I still have more hobbies than I have time, or money, for!  Much like my son (go figure), I love Harley Davidson motorcycles, personal water craft, four wheelers and snow machines.  I like movies, but usually will read the book first.  I shoot skeet (clay pigeons)  on a team of five guys.  I’m not a top shooter, but no one enjoys it more than I do!  I also have been seen behind a camera every now and then.  I’m no photographer, but I really enjoy learning from the people who actually are!

We wish you a very Merry Christmas and a delightful New Year!

December 17, 2009

Home Buyer Tax Credit

In the last days of November 2008, Congress passed new legislation to continue the plan to help stimulate the U.S. housing market.  The new legislation now accomplishes two items:

A Front Door that says "Welcome!"

A Front Door that says "Welcome!"

a) It extends the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit of up to $8,000 to first-time home buyers until April 30, 2010.  The previous first time home-buyer plan expired November 30.

b) and it expands the tax credit to include existing home owners who sell their existing house and buy another home.  The tax credit to these people is up to a $6,500, applied against any Federal tax they owe.  If they don’t owe that much tax, it would be a refund.   These transactions have to be completed by April 30, 2010.

Owning your own home is the “American Dream!”  This is a great opportunity for not only first time home buyers, but for people who bought a small home and need to expand into a larger home for a growing family.

There are very few limitations to this program.  Homes have to be less than $800,000, which shouldn’t curb too many buyers in the Alaska market.  A single buyers’ income needs to be under $125,000 per year and married couples with incomes up to $225,000 may received the maximum tax credit.

I’ve had some buyers ask if the tax credit has to be repaid.  This question probably stems from confusion with a previous Alaska Housing first time home-buyer “tax exempt” program that said if a buyer got a reduced interest rate, and they sold the home within three years they may have to repay some of their gain.  The answer to the question of whether or not the tax credit has to be repaid is a solid “No”.  Once you get the credit, you never have to pay it back!

December 14, 2009

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Filed under: Just for fun,Life in Anchorage — Tags: , , , , , — Dan @ 1:25 pm
Alaska Log Chalet on Big Lake

Alaska Log Chalet on Big Lake

Don’t you just love Christmas time?  Yeah, I know this time of year is super busy.  There just are so many details we take on so Christmas day is special, but it’s worth it once you get it all taken care of.

I’ve been admiring the home in the photo for a while.  I happened by the home when the sun was setting on a particular cold day and thought to myself “This is a house Christmas would feel very special in!”  Once the sun slipped behind the horizon, there was a big tree I could see in the window, and a fire in the fireplace.  I couldn’t resist taking a photo of the home to share with everyone.  Doesn’t it look inviting? 

I close my eyes and envision hot cocoa, a big fire crackling in the fireplace and a set of cross country ski’s with snow melting off them at the door!

I love driving through neighborhoods at Christmas time to see how homes are decorated for the holiday.  It must be the realtor in me.  I’m showing my “inner child”.  I have warm memories of the excitement of being a little boy and how magical the season was!

December 10, 2009

Home Affordability Index

The home affordability index is a measure of the financial ability of families to buy a home in a given area.  The index is a way to measure how three main economic factors interact.  Those factors are home sale prices in the given area, the average annual income of people in the area and mortgage interest rates.  Using these three factors, statisticians can create a value that can be used to measure housing affordability consistently.  Consumers can watch local home affordability and can also use the index to compare the cost of living in between one area and another.

A dramatic sunset in December

A dramatic sunset in December

Alaska Department of Labor compiles and posts an Alaskan cost of living report which compares Alaskan towns. Click here for the most recent report.  In fact, look around the State of Alaska Department of Labor site and you’ll see a lot of interesting reports on various aspects of the state economy.

An index rating of 100 means that families earning the area’s median income have just the right amount of money needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home.  The affordability index varies, as you would expect, around the country.  If home prices decrease, or interest rates decrease, the index becomes more positive, indicating housing is more affordable to the average income earner. 

 Typically the Midwest is very affordable and the Southern states are good for the most part.  Larger cities and popular vacation destinations are usually not as affordable, for instance Honolulu, San Francisco and New York have much higher affordability index’s as say Phoenix, Los Vegas or Grand Rapids, Michigan might have.  Click here to read this Quicken article claiming lower prices and better interest rates have raised the index as much as 2% in the past couple years!

December 8, 2009

Income Property Valuation

On income producing properties, such as 6 unit buildings and larger, investors and real estate professionals measure value differently than the way single family homes and condominiums are valuated.

When agents and appraisers value homes, they look at what similar properties are actually selling at.  We also note the

The sun coming up behind the Chugach Range over Cook Inlet

The sun coming up behind the Chugach Range over Cook Inlet

amount of “active” competition of similar property are on the market.  The assumption is if  homes in close proximity to yours and with similar “specs” as the subject home sold at a certain price, its logical that your house will get a similar price. 

Income properties are valuated based upon their ability to produce income after all expenses are paid.  The condition of the property is taken into account, of course.  If the property isn’t properly maintained, the rents will decrease and become more management intensive as tenants come and go more often.

There are a number of ways investors might value a building such as “Cash on Cash” which is the return on the investors actual invested cash and other “quick and dirty” methods.  However, by far the most common method of valuing a building  is a factor known as a “cap rate.” 

The process is started bylocating the properties income from all sources (rents and laundry), and then accurately show all the property expenses.  Expenses are items such as property taxes, insurance, gas or other heating, electric, water & sewer, refuse and lawn and/or snow removal.  Of course, overstating the rent or understating the expenses will give you inaccurate results.  A buyer,  a seller, an appraiser and the lender will all scrutinize the expenses to make sure they are accurate.

In addition, to properly analyze the property, it is important to assign a value for vacancy, even if a property happens to be fully rented at the present time.  Most cities keep track of the actual local vacancy rate so you don’t have to guess at it.  Don’t forget set-asides, or property reserves!  Your building is going to need paint in 7 – 10 years and the roof will need work in 15 or so years depending on your weather, etc.  Another item of expense that can be overlooked is property management.  On larger buildings lenders won’t let you manage your own building, especially if you haven’t had experience at it.  Management fees run between 5% and 8% depending on the scope of work and the condition of the property.

Once you get to the bottom line of income minus all real expenses, you assign a capitalization (or cap) rate.  A cap rate is a multiplier to get to building value.  In our market, a very nice well maintained property in a good neighborhood might have a cap rate of 7.5 or 8.  If the building is run down or you need a security team in Kevlar to collect the rent, you could see cap rates of 12 – 13.  The lower the cap rate, the higher the value.

Sadly, in our market rents have remained flat or only increased nominally, while expenses have steadily increased.  For instance, the municipality’s assessed value is often higher than the actual appraisal value, meaning taxes are high.  Property insurance isn’t necessarily a given commodity but varies on the building and how often the buyers have had a insurance claim.

December 3, 2009

Cap and Trade National Building Code Proposed

In June 2009  lawmakers slipped legislation through the U.S. House of Representatives tucked inside another bill which would allow for a national construction building code.  Now that the bill has passed through the House, it is in the Senate awaiting debate before the Senate votes on it. 

My son and friend enjoying new snow

My son and friend enjoying new snow

If passed, Washington will be able dictate building codes on your home that will supercede current local building codes.  This new building code allegedly applies the same conditions to a home in Honolulu, Hawaii as  a home in Anchorage, Alaska and Portland, Maine.

The bill  requires that by 2012 codes must require that new buildings be 30 percent more efficient than they would have been under current regulations. By 2016, that figure rises to 50 percent, with increases scheduled for years after that. With those targets in mind, the bill expects organizations that develop model codes for states and localities to fill in the details, creating a new “national code.” 

From what I understand, the new codes target new construction first and then will begin to affect existing construction.  It’s hard to know what changes to anticipate, but for sure the cost of new construction will increase.  The enforcement of the code will have to mean another inspection and someone to interpret the federal guidelines, then the repairs will have to be made and, of course, another post-repair inspection.  As if it’s not complicated already.  Home inspections today can be difficult for some to comply with, as well as expensive and time consuming.

Read this article explaining the bill “http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-2454“;  For some interesting reading, go to your Internet browser and”Google” search “Waxman-Markley Cap and Trade” and see what your impressions are. 

I can say that on the surface it may seem desirable to uniformly mandate higher home energy efficiency standards. I don’t think the industry will be enthusiastic about Washington D.C dictating the changes.  Enforcing these changes at the sale of a home will greatly increase the costs to sellers as well as the time it takes to complete a transaction because of the extra inspections, construction and underwriting compliance time.

Copyright 2010 Dan Wolf, Realtor
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