City of Lights - in the winter!

leaders in Anchorage with a focus on increasing business activity in Anchorage as well as making the city even more desirable place to live, work and play.

Many influential local businesses leaders have a voice in this endeavor including GCI, Wells Fargo, CH2M Hill, USKH, AT & T, Princess Tours, BP, Conocophillips and a host of other important companies. 

Every year at an important lunch a report is given on the “state of Anchorages economy from these companies’ considerable insights and perspectives.

This year the luncheon was sold out early at the Anchorage Dena’ina Center with over 1,500 in attendance.  The report is lengthy.  If you email me, I would be happy to email you a copy for you to review, but in short AEDC shows strong evidence that the Anchorage economy is continuing its recovery.  In 2009 the local economy experienced its first job losses in 20 years; Anchorage had enjoyed 20 years straight with each year being slightly better than the previous prior to 2009. 

On average, in 2011 there were 1,700 more jobs in Anchorage than there were in 2010.  Looking forward to 2012, this year, AEDC is projecting similar growth, expecting to see 1,500 new jobs over the course of the year.  These jobs are expected to be in oil and gas industry, the visitor industry, transportation services, and health care.  Government jobs are expected to decline slightly and construction jobs will remain flat at best but mostly likely decline due to lack of construction.

All in all, the mood at the luncheon seemed positive.  The recap of last years forecast caused the crowd to clap because the year was more positive than the early projection.  The forecast for 2012 is positive, especially in light of the fact so many area’s in the country are suffering in decline and loss of jobs.

Mid-town Anchorage as seen from Government Hill

First was that the number of new listings, measured year-over-year is falling.  Not a lot, but slightly declining. For instance: in 2009 there were 2,974 new listings, 2010 2,932 new listings and in 2011 2,819 new listings.  That means home supply isn’t increasing, it’s flat or slightly decreasing.  Generally that means prices stay stable and maybe a few builders will get back into home construction again.

I know I’m reaching here, but I’ll take whatever good news I can get.  In 2011 local real estate agents sold 60 more homes than they did in the previous year.  Each year from 2007 through 2010 has had fewer sales than the previous year.  This is the first year sales have been better, albeit slightly.

This is how the market improves; we talk about the good improvements we’re seeing – a little here and a little there!  Keep the faith, Anchorage!

This report was sent to me by another agent and rates each agent’s volumn between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2011.  I put the top 50 Alaska real estate agents on this report.

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Market Penetration Report By Members

Status: SoldSearch Parameters: Property types Residential, Condominium, Vacant Land, Multi-Family, Commercial Borough/Census Area of ’1A – Anchorage Municipality’, ’1B – Kenai Peninsula Borough’,

As of Tuesday, January 3, 2012 12:03:29 Noon

Date Range: Jan/1/2011 to 12/31/2011
Number and Volume Calculated By Sides

Owning Your Own Home is at the core of the American Dream

In fact, three out of four home owners still believe that owning a home is the best long term investment and is worth the risk of a sometimes unpredictable housing market.

In a study I read, nearly 95% of home-owners  polled say they are happy with the decision to own a home.

This is even true of those who are under water on their home mortgage.  Nearly two-thirds believe owning a home is worth the risk and most are happy with their decision to own a home.  Remember there are several other reasons to own your home including family stability as well as the tax benefits.  Sure, we might not have seen any appreciation in a few years, but we all enjoy other benefits of owning our own home.

At the end of the day, four out of five current homeowners say they would advise a friend or family member to buy their own home.

There you go, clearly in-spite of some lack-luster years, the American Dream of owning your own home is still high on list of family goals.

This little device could save a house from freezing up

Honeywell, the thermostat people, has a temperature controlled device that you can put in a vacant house or cabin that will alert your neighbors, or you, if the temperature falls too low inside the house.  Hopefully, this will give you some time to call the plumber before you get a freeze-up!

You simply plug in the devise into a wall outlet. It looks similar to a thermostat but works just he reverse. The other end is plugged into a lamp.  If you commonly leave lights on already, maybe change the bulb color in this fixture so it looks unusual.

The idea is that once plugged in and activated, you can ask your neighbors to call you if they notice this lamp burning inside the house.  If its on, it means the temperature has fallen to the level

Using a colored light will make it obvious you may have a heating problem

you you preset on the “Winter Watchman” and you get a “heads up” to check out the heat in the house – quickly if it’s cold outside!

You can find these at most plumbing stores.  I found mine in Anchorage at Hasco on 6th Avenue. 

For our real estate purposes, we are already going by our vacant houses to confirm there are flyer’s on the sign at the curb and the snow is shoveled.  We can tell from the curb if the heat is on.  If we can have a friendly neighbor keep an eye it, all the better!

Do Open Houses Sell Homes?

Your first exposure to a real estate agent was probably when you bought your first home.  Based on the experiences you formed with the first agent you worked with, you formed a generalized impression about what it is that agents do to find buyers and sell homes.

When it comes time to sell your house, you probably expect your listing agent to do the same things that your agent did when you were looking to buy a home back then.

If it’s been 10 years or more since you were a buyer, you will be amazed at how much things have changed; for instance, back in 1995 only 2% of home buyers used the Internet to look for a home (according to the National Association of Realtors statistics poll).  In 2009 94% of buyers said their first exposure to the home they bought was from an Internet search.  Another staggering difference is how print advertising has changed.  Newspaper and printed monthly magazines are expensive and account for very few sales.

When it comes to open houses, less than 2% of homes sell as a result of an open house, according to the National Association of Realtors, just slightly behind print advertising.  The Internet with its targeting search, good quality photos and virtual tours is how people look today.

Open houses tend to interest tire kickers, neighbors and people who want to entertain themselves by roaming through someone else’s home. Often they are not qualified, or even know what the house is worth.  They are just trying to get an idea what kind of house they can get in the area – but that won’t help you sell your house right now.

A quality virtual tour and lots of good photos will help you sell your home and are going to give the buyer an accurate representation of what the house looks like on the inside.  Yes, Internet shopping does significantly cut down on the foot traffic for a home listing, but the ones that have gone through the virtual tour and are still interested in it are far more likely to be ready to make an offer when they see the home in person.

Do you wonder why agents do open houses?  There are several reasons, really.  In new construction homes, they are more effective than with existing houses so builders may require them when they list. Some agents do them simply to show the seller they are doing something. For newer agents without customers, it can be an opportunity to find a buyer and help them find a house they qualify for.  These agents are using the house as an office to help them find buyers.

Would a Realtor have open houses on their own home?  Most likely not; most agents agree that while you might be able to find buyers for another property, you are very unlikely to find the buyer for the house you are holding open.  Many agents now refuse to hold open houses, considering them to a waste of time and even a security threat; most sellers want to know buyers have been pre-qualified before they open their door to them.

The article said:

“Nearly three out of four renters (72 percent) say owning a home is a top priority for their future, up from 63 percent a year ago”, according to the 2011 Pulse survey from the National Association of Realtors. 

Most people want a home of their own with a reasonable down-payment loan

The article went on to say that many renters felt that if government assisted programs which help consumers buy a home were to go away, such as FHA and VA, leaving only conventional loan products often requiring 20% cash down-payments, 71 percent believe a 20% down-payment would have a negative impact on the housing market and their ability to save that large of a down payment.

More than 8 out of 10 people taking the Housing Pulse Survey say the top obstacle to homeownership is having enough money for a down payment and closing costs, followed by have confidence in their job security.

I'm Glad That's Over!

While the experts expectations for the housing market reached their lowest point since the panel was assembled a year ago, two-thirds of the members believed the U.S. residential real estate market has reached a turning point.

However, the 69 panelists who are forecasting a turnaround beginning in 2011 predict less than 2 percent average annual growth in home prices over th five year period ending Dec 2015.  Such a scenario might be better described as a forecast of price stability rather than a rebound” says Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist.

The oil and gas industry employs very bright minds and the sharpest engineers in the world to continually find new ways to find and extract pockets of fuel from around the world.

One method that had been in use for the past 10 years is called “horizontal drilling”.  This is one of the best explanations I’ve seen on horizontal drilling.  There is a lot of engineering and expense involved to get gas and oil out of the ground!

“http://www.northernoil.com/drilling.php”

 When you think about the technology, equipment and man power involved to pull this off, you get some idea why the price of fuel at the pump has gone up. 

I for one, am thankful for the folks that have brought this technology to Alaska.  There are a lot Alaska families with better lives for each “oil patch’ job in Alaska!

Treat every offer like it might be the only one you get!

What struck me as interesting is that neither offer was exactly what we were hoping for, and in both cases, the sellers said “It’s only our first offer,” insinuating that first offers are low and that later offers would get better.

I guess the truth is that you really never know what will happen later on.  I’ve seen examples where it took months to get that second offer, and it was worst than the first one.  Of course everyone agrees  at that  ”we should have taken that first offer!“  I have to resist saying the obvious “I told you so.”

I’ve taken negotiating classes where the instructor says that you never take the first offer.  I guess I understand that nearly every offer is negotiable, and than generally is true in real estate purchases.  I know I’ve pointed out to buyers who want to send a low offer in on a property that is new to the market that “this home has only been on the market a few days.”  Personally, when an offer comes in fast, I expect the sellers to be fairly conservative in their counters anyway.  The longer a home is on the market tends to soften up most sellers.

Conventional real estate wisdom from the wise gray haired Realtors, like Yoda,  would tell you “The first offer is the best offer.“  That might be because the more days a property is on the market, the more likely a buyer is going to assume the seller is getting anxious and a price reduction is in order.

In any event, my council to a seller would be to treat any written offer as serious and respond fairly. I would counter with a reasonable counter offer spelling out what you would be willing to accept to sell your property.

I gave both sellers this weekend the same advise and guess what?  Buyers and Sellers found common ground and now we have two transactions working towards closing!